From 1998 to 2013, there was only one game between two teams that decided that year’s national championship. Starting in 2014, the playoff field doubled to four. Initial reactions were positive but over time it became more clear that adjustments needed to be made. After lots of debates and ideas the college football committee introduced the 12 team playoff and it made its debut this winter. The 12-team playoff was a failure, and once again College Football is faced with the impossible task of finding a way to name one school a National Champion.
The new format lacks all logical sense. Since the introduction of the four team playoff in 2014, 7 of the 10 Championship games have resulted in a win of more than 14+ points. Even in the semi-finals, 13 of the 20 played led to a two possession win. There have never even been four quality, championship-contending teams within college football, so why would they extend playoff size? The reasoning goes back to one group of people, the College Football committee, and their love for big checks.
By adding more playoff games, college football was able to add more TV airtime, more sponsorships, more ads, and, best of all, more money. However, college football has to compete with the NFL for TV airtime. The conflict with the NFL led to multiple playoff games being played on weeknights, leading to lower average viewership among all games. Casual fans are also more likely to skip watching games due to busy weekday schedules. The average viewership of the championship dropped 12.5% compared to last year’s Michigan vs. Washington title game (USA Today). A drop in viewership also occurred with a 17% decline from last year’s New Year Day games (ESPN). Only the viewer suffers, yet the committee is unlikely to change the playoff side as they made more money this year from extra games.
Regardless of whether an twelve team playoff produces unique matchups like Boise St. versus Penn St. or brings back an old rivalry of Indiana versus Notre Dame, there is no need for these games as it has taken away the culture of bowl season. Along with this, second-round games being played at a neutral site give little advantage to the lower-seeded teams. To combat this, all second-round games should be home games for the lower-seeded teams. This also gives the option of bringing back prestigious bowl games like the Cotton Bowl and Peach Bowl. Fans of schools like Miami or Alabama won’t be playing in bowl games like the Pop Tart or Reliquest Bowl and instead in something more prestigious. Additional home games also provide students with a unique opportunity to watch their school in the playoffs without spending money on flights, lodging, and all other expenses.
The process of seeding also needs to be adjusted. Although I am not the biggest fan of a guaranteed spot for conference champs, I know the committee will want to keep this to give lower-market teams some exposure and chance to prove themselves on a bigger stage. Instead, there should be a 12-team pull (with conference champs) and be seeded based on record and schedule strength. This will help keep teams like Ohio State from being a high seed and Arizona St. type team from getting a first-week bye. By following a similar matchup of March Madness, the first and second-round games will be more balanced and avoid giving higher seed teams a worse opponent in later rounds.
My seeding formation idea will also help prevent the inevitable of trying to schedule easier teams during the regular season. Each year, college football will move away from early heavy-hitting non-conference matchups like Georgia vs. Oregon or Clemson vs. Alabama. An early season loss for any of these teams would hurt their playoff chances, so why not play two FCS teams (Division 1 Football Championship Subdivision) to start the year? Other than money there is nothing stopping an easy start to the season, and a playoff appearance will easily make up that difference. The committee made it obvious that in future years, your win percentage will matter way more, so don’t be surprised if Notre Dame continues to host teams like Northern Illinois University (who Notre Dame actually lost to) and fewer week 1 powerhouse matchups.
Despite the multiple flaws of the playoff system, it was nice having college football run into late January. The sample size of whether this playoff works is still small, but the committee needs to make these adjustments to have more success in the future.
